Earlier today, the Writers Guild of America announced their nominees for 2018. As previously announced, the current frontrunner for the Best Original Screenplay Oscar, "The Favourite," was deemed ineligible due to their inexplicable and embarrassing rules, but as for what remains, just about everything that was expected to be here has made the cut.
The biggest omission of note is Paul Schrader's "First Reformed," which had practically been running neck-and-neck with "The Favourite" in the Original Screenplay category, but with its failure to get a nomination here, Schrader's Oscar chances have been drastically reduced, leaving the latter in prime position.
What we're left with in the WGA's Original Screenplay category are three scripts that have won three critics awards each ("Green Book," "Eighth Grade," and "Vice"), one that has won one ("A Quiet Place"), and one that has yet to win any ("Roma"). If I had to guess here, I'd say that "Green Book" has the best chance of winning, but mainly because it doesn't have to go up against any of its big competition.
Over in Adapted Screenplay, we have the usual suspects, including the three most lauded screenplays of the category: "Blackkklansman" (6), "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" (5), and "If Beale Street Could Talk" (5). The category is rounded out with "Black Panther" (1) and "A Star is Born" (0). Given the lack of guild nominations for "Beale Street" (it has been ignored by the PGA, SAG, ACE, and will likely be ignored by the DGA tomorrow), it seems safe to eliminate it from the running. Again, if I had to guess, I would go with "Blackkklansman," not only because it's the best film of these five, but also because many will probably feel that Spike Lee is overdue for the win.
Will these guesses prove to be correct? We'll just have to wait until the awards are handed out on February 17th to find out. Meanwhile, be sure to check back tomorrow for the Directors Guild of America nominations and late night tomorrow/early morning Wednesday for the BAFTA nominations.
Please see below for a list of today's WGA nominations:
Eighth Grade, Written by Bo Burnham; A24
Green Book, Written by Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly; Universal Pictures
A Quiet Place, Screenplay by Bryan Woods & Scott Beck and John Krasinski, Story by Bryan Woods & Scott Beck; Paramount Pictures
Roma, Written by Alfonso Cuarón; Netflix
Vice, Written by Adam McKay; Annapurna Pictures
Blackkklansman, Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, Based on the book by Ron Stallworth; Focus Features
Black Panther, Written by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Based on the Marvel Comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Based on the book by Lee Israel; Fox Searchlight
If Beale Street Could Talk, Screenplay by Barry Jenkins, Based on the novel by James Baldwin; Annapurna Pictures
A Star is Born, Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, Based on the 1954 screenplay by Moss Hart and the 1976 screenplay by John Gregory Dunne & Joan Didion and Frank Pierson, Based on a story by William Wellman and Robert Carson; Warner Bros.
Bathtubs Over Broadway, Written by Ozzy Inguanzo & Dava Whisenant; Focus Features
Fahrenheit 11/9, Written by Michael Moore; Briarcliff Entertainment
Generation Wealth, Written by Lauren Greenfield; Amazon Studios
In Search of Greatness, Written by Gabe Polsky; Art of Sport